Notable market news this past week (18-Jan-26)
Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week
🌍 TSMC strong earnings beat for full year 2025 results
TSMC (+5.8% past 5D) earnings beat: TSMC (+5.80% past 5D) reported record full-year results for 2025, with fourth-quarter revenue of about NT$1,046bn and EPS of NT$19.50 – beating expectations and setting a strong performance tone.
Optimistic forward looking commentary: The company expects sales growth of nearly 30% in 2026, driven by strong demand for AI and a recovery in non-AI segments, such as end markets like consumer electronics and smartphone chip applications. CEO C.C. Wei has reaffirmed confidence in the structural nature of AI chip demand, dismissing bubble concerns. In terms of capex and expansion plans, TSMC is also raising capital expenditures sharply for 2026, with planned spending of US$52-56bn to expand capacity and advanced process technologies. The company’s capex commitment has also benefited equipment suppliers like ASML, whose stock has rallied alongside TSMC’s investment plans.
Chip rally with TSMC: An index of semiconductors (.SOX) climbed 1.8%. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O), Broadcom (AVGO.O), and chipmaking tool company Applied Materials (AMAT.O), all climbed as a result
☕️ Quick fire happenings to note
🌏 Global macro
- Trump administration threatened Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with a criminal indictment over Fed’s renovation testimony: Justice Department had opened a criminal investigation over Powell’s testimony to Congress last summer about the Fed’s multibillion-dollar renovation project. The probe underscores a sharp escalation in President Trump’s attempts to pressure the Fed, after repeated demands for interest rate cuts to boost the economy. This sparked market commentary on the importance of central bank autonomy and garnered public support from global central bank chiefs and bank CEOs.
- Speculation on Japan’s snap election lifts stocks to record highs: Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi plans to dissolve the Lower House of Parliament and trigger a snap general election possibly as early as February 8, 2026, aiming to solidify her mandate and legislative strength. This comes amid high approval ratings and a weakened governing coalition majority that could otherwise delay budget approvals and policy implementation. Japanese equities rallied sharply with investors’ optimism around stimulus and growth-oriented policy continuity, while JPY weakened significantly with USDJPY trading around 160 handle, as markets price in a dovish policy tilt that could counteract monetary tightening.
- Venezuela’s political upheaval continues to reverberate through markets: Local equities and sovereign bonds rallied on optimism about a possible economic reset and debt restructuring potential. Venezuela began reversing its oil production cuts made under a strict US oil embargo as crude exports resume under US supervision. Oil price volatility continues to linger amid supply uncertainty, and broader geopolitical risk premiums influencing risk assets.
- World Bank and IMF signal slower but resilient growth: The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects highlights continued resilience in the global economy but with slower growth in developing markets and elevated debt risks. Emerging markets are forecast to slow to around 4% in 2026 from 4.2% in 2025, with income gaps to advanced economies persisting, underlining structural challenges.
- Safe-haven flows amid geopolitics: Safe-haven appetite pushed precious metals higher and kept volatility elevated amid geopolitical developments and policy uncertainty. Gold soared to new record highs, briefly topping $4640/oz before settling slightly lower, while silver also broke above $90/oz for the first time.
- China’s record trade surplus despite US tariff pressures: China closed 2025 with a record annual trade surplus of about $1.2trillion, reflecting strong export performance to ASEAN, Africa, the EU and Latin America, even as exports to the US slumped due to renewed tariffs under the Trump administration. This underscores China’s export resilience and diversified trade strategy.
🏦 Individual stocks/companies
- Moderna Inc (+21.44% past 5D) shares surged on upbeat product news and guidance: The company said it expects to report around ~1.9 billion in revenue in 2025, about $100 million above the midpoint of its prior guidance, and laid out meaningful cuts to operating expenses. Also further driven by renewed vaccine contracts, new product launches, and positive results from late-stage oncology and rare-disease trials, some analysts see further upside and re-assess the near-term outlook more favourably.
- JPMorgan Chase (-2.66% past 5D) reported weaker-than-expected profit and revenue, sending the stock lower. The bank’s Q4 2025 earnings beat adjusted expectations (adjusted EPS ~$5.23 vs forecast) but net profit fell ~7% due to a $2.2 billion charge tied to its acquisition of the Apple Card portfolio. While trading and consumer banking showed strength, asset and wealth management lagged and investment banking fees declined, contributing to the stock’s underperformance vs peers in the earnings cycle.
🇸🇬 Singapore related
- Singapore defended the performance of its sovereign wealth funds, GIC and Temasek, amid criticism that their returns have lagged global benchmarks. Temasek’s 10-year annualised return was around 5% as of March 31, 2025, compared with roughly 9–10% per annum for the MSCI All Country World Index over the same period. GIC’s 20-year annualised real return stood at about 3.8% (inflation-adjusted), a figure viewed as modest relative to long-term global equity performance. In response, senior officials stressed that both funds operate under distinct mandates and long-term risk frameworks, prioritising capital preservation and resilience over short-term benchmark outperformance, and cautioned that direct comparisons with public indices or other sovereign funds are not always meaningful.
- Removal of Pritam Singh as Leader of Opposition: Last week’s parliamentary session was also marked by a high-profile political debate and vote that resulted in the removal of Pritam Singh as Leader of Opposition amid questions about parliamentary conduct and integrity. This was a largely unprecedented move in Singapore politics given that the position was only formally recognised after the 2020 general election.
- HSBC is reportedly exploring the sale of its Singapore insurance business – The bank is reviewing strategic options for its Singapore insurance unit, HSBC Life (Singapore) which could include a sale valued at over US$1 billion. This review comes amid HSBC’s global business restructuring under CEO Georges Elhedery, following earlier divestments in Europe and North America.
