Notable market news this past week (22-Feb-26)
Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week
🌍 Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs, leaves refund issue unresolved
IEEPA-based tariffs blocked, Trump pivots to Section 122 tariffs: In a 6-3 ruling, the Supreme Court held that the President does not have the authority to impose tariffs under International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, President Trump immediately announced plans to levy 10% global tariffs, which he has now raised to 15%, under Section 122, in addition to existing duties, and stated he would open new Section 301 investigations on individual countries to offset the lost IEEPA revenues. Section 122 tariffs are temporary, expiring after 150 days unless extended by Congress, suggesting that there may potentially be other proposed tariffs under alternative authorities down the road. The Supreme Court also left the question of refunds unresolved – whether refunds for duties already collected under IEEPA will be issued at all, and if so, whether companies would need to file individual lawsuits to obtain relief.
Uncertainty around US trade policy remains a key near-term factor for markets: US equities saw modest gains following relief that broad IEEPA-based tariffs were struck down, but market focus has quickly shifted to the implications of Section 122 and other potential trade actions, as the administration is likely to reimpose many of these duties using alternative legal authorities. The recent tariff announcements thus revive the prospect of tariff headline-driven volatility, creating uncertainty for yields and risk assets, potentially triggering short-term risk-off behaviour in equity markets. Treasury yields may rise modestly if investors anticipate inflationary pressure from new tariffs on imported goods, and this is supportive of higher yields and a steeper curve. Meanwhile, ambiguity over potential refunds also weighs on investor sentiment, with any refund payments potentially widening the federal budget deficit.
☕️ Quick fire happenings to note
🌏 Global macro
- US GDP growth misses expectations last quarter as the government shutdown mechanically subtracted 1% from growth: The US economy slowed sharply at the end of 2025, with the advance estimate showing real GDP rising just 1.4% q/q annualized in the fourth quarter, well below expectations and a significant drop from the 4.4% q/q in the prior period in Q3. This deceleration reflected weaker government spending and a cool down in consumer demand, partly linked to a prolonged government shutdown. The US government shutdown, which lasted for nearly half of the fourth quarter, is estimated to have subtracted about 1% from GDP. Overall, the economy expanded 2.2% in 2025, marking a slowdown from 2.8% in 2024, yet still indicating moderate growth. This reignited debate around the near-term growth outlook and could influence expectations for monetary policy.
- January FOMC minutes turned more hawkish, signalling caution about premature easing: The minutes showed a noticeable shift towards a more hawkish stance than markets had been anticipating. While policymakers unanimously held the federal funds rate at the target range of 3.50% - 3.75%, the minutes emphasized that inflation progress remains slower and more uneven than expected, with core inflation still above target. Several officials even flagged that upward adjustments to the policy rate could be appropriate if inflation fails to return decisively towards 2%, effectively putting rate hikes back on the table. This shift has pressured markets to reprice the path of monetary policy, with markets abandoning expectations of near-term rate cuts. USD strengthened and treasury yields rose on the hawkish tone.
- Political tensions around the Russia-Ukraine intensifies: New rounds of US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Geneva aimed at advancing a ceasefire is in the progress, even as fighting continues on the ground. Concurrently, Hungary has also threatened to veto the €90 billion European Union loan package intended to support Ukraine’s finances, unless Ukraine restores oil deliveries from the pipeline – which runs from Russia through its territory to Slovakia and Hungary. Deepening divisions within the EU are keeping geopolitical risks prominent for markets as the fourth anniversary of the invasion approaches.
🏦 Individual stocks/companies
- DoorDash Inc (+9.36% past 5D) reported a mixed fourth-quarter 2025 result which showed strong underlying growth. Revenue rose about 38% y/y to US$3.96 billion and total orders climbed about 32% to 903 million, with gross order value hitting nearly US$29.7 billion, beating some expectations. However, adjusted EPS of US$0.48 missed estimates. The food delivery platform company also provided guidance for Q1 gross order value above Street forecasts, though adjusted EBITDA guidance came in below consensus, reflecting continued heavy investment in technology and expansion initiatives. The initial market reaction was volatile, with shares swinging sharply after hours before finishing notably higher, as investors focused on the growth trajectory and strategic outlook despite margin pressures.
- Etsy Inc (+12.19% past 5D) shares jumped sharply on earnings beat and strategic pivot: The e-commerce company reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with revenue of about US$881.6 million, which was up around 3.5% y/y, and adjusted earnings beating consensus with EPS of US$0.92. Despite a softer consumer discretionary environment, gross merchandise sales showed modest growth excluding divestitures. The company also announced the sale of its Gen-Z focused resale platform Depop to eBay for about US$1.2 billion, a strategic move to refocus on its core handmade and vintage marketplace and strengthen margins, which lifted Etsy’s share price significantly.
- Moncler SpA (+12.47% past 5D) shares surged after reporting strong full-year 2025 results, with consolidated revenues rising to €3.13 billion – a 3% y/y increase from 2024 and above consensus expectations. This solid performance was anchored by a particularly strong fourth quarter where sales grew about 7%, driven by robust demand in Asia and the Americas. However, net profit came in slightly lower at €626.7 million due to higher financial expenses and cost pressures, and operating profit dipped modestly. The luxury fashion company also proposed a dividend of €1.40 per share, underscoring confidence in its cash flow and long term strategy, which helped the stock to rally over 10% in a single session.
🇸🇬 Singapore related
- Prime Minster Lawrence Wong and Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim reaffirmed their commitment to deepening bilateral cooperation: During a special visit to Kuala Lumpur by Prime Minister Wong, the two leaders toured the historic Seri Negara estate, broke fast together in conjunction with Ramadan, and discussed efforts to strengthen friendship, deepen cooperation, and resolve outstanding bilateral issues in areas of mutual interest, such as airspace, water and maritime delimitation. Both leaders expressed appreciation for the warm hospitality and reiterated the importance of close ties between Singapore and Malaysia, whose trade relationship continues to grow within the ASEAN framework.
