Notable market news this past week (4-Oct-26)
Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week
🌍 US jobs data weakens, easing near-term Fed hike expectations while Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs
September non-farm payrolls increased by just 29,000, well below expectations, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Previous months’ data were also revised lower, with July and August payrolls cut by a combined 60,000. The softer labour data suggests that the US economy is losing momentum and has eased the likelihood of another Fed hike in October, although wage growth remained relatively firm at 3.0% y/y, leaving the Fed with a difficult balance between weakening employment and still elevated inflation risks.
However, the softer growth backdrop provided limited relief as the US bond sell-off intensified further during week, with the 10-year treasury yield surging to 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, driven by elevated inflation expectations, fiscal concerns and heavy government borrowing. Meanwhile, Brent remained above US$100/bbl amid continued Middle East supply risks, keeping pressure on inflation and limiting the prospect of rapid monetary easing. The combination of weakening growth, elevated oil prices and high long-end yields leaves markets facing a challenging stagflationary backdrop, with the path of inflation and Treasury yields likely to remain key drivers of equity performance.
☕️ Quick fire happenings to note
🌏 Global macro
- US activity remains resilient despite a cooling labour market, as ISM manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansion at 54.5 in September. However, input prices rose sharply, suggesting that strong demand, particularly from AI infrastructure investment, continues to support activity, while elevated energy costs are feeding into inflation pressures.
- China’s manufacturing activity returns to expansion, with the official manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August, marking a return to expansion territory after two consecutive months of contraction. The recovery was driven primarily by high-tech manufacturing activity led by stronger industrial demand from the global AI boom. However, domestic consumption remained relatively weak, with new export orders at 50.0 and small and medium-sized manufacturers still in contraction, pointing to an uneven recovery.
- South Korea’s manufacturing activity accelerates on strong chip and auto demand, with the S&P global manufacturing PMI rising to 53.9 in September from 52.3 in August, its highest level in four months and marking the 10th consecutive month of expansion. Growth was driven by a sharp increase in export demand, led by strong demand for semiconductors and automobiles across Europe and Asia, highlighting the continued boost from the global AI and semiconductor investment cycle.
🏦 Individual stocks/companies
- Nvidia Corp (+1.77% past 5D) shares initially rose ~2%, outperforming a broader market weighed down by surging rates, after announcing a record US$150bn share buyback authorisation, bringing its remaining repurchase capacity to US$235bn through FY2028. The authorisation, the largest increase in a US corporate buyback programme to date, underscores management’s confidence in the durability of AI infrastructure demand and Nvidia’s ability to generate substantial free cash flow while continuing to invest heavily in its business. The announcement also came as investors were increasingly questioning whether the pace of AI capital spending can be sustained, particularly as competition from AMD and custom AI chips intensifies.
- Micron Technology Inc (-0.36% past 5D) shares saw a volatile week, after reporting a strong FY4Q beat and above-consensus guidance. The stock initially rose but subsequently came under pressure as investors focused on the high expectations already priced into the stock and rising capital expenditure requirements. Despite robust AI-driven memory demand and strong customer commitments, higher FY2027 capex to expand capacity and already elevated expectations following the stock’s more-than-tripling this year limited further upside, particularly amid elevated Treasury yields and concerns over the sustainability of AI-related spending.
- City Developments Ltd (-14.36% past 5D) shares fell sharply, after announcing a three-year strategic review targeting S$6bn of asset divestments and S$5bn of new investments across Singapore, China and Japan. While the plan aims to unlock value from mature and non-core assets and strengthen the balance sheet, investors appeared cautious about the pace of capital recycling and whether the redeployment of proceeds would generate sufficient returns, particularly as CDL targets net gearing of ~55% by FY2029 from 75% currently.
🇸🇬 Singapore related
- China suspends fuel exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau for October, tightening supplies across Asia. Singapore is the largest recipient of Chinese gasoline, but imports were already down 62% y/y in the first nine months of 2026, pushing Singapore's light-distillate inventories to their lowest level in five years. Asian gasoline refining margins subsequently surged above US$50/bbl as tighter Chinese exports raised concerns over regional fuel supply.
