Notable market news this past week (15-Mar-26)
Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week
🌍 Oil prices surged amid escalating Iran conflict, raising inflation concerns and pushing back expectations for global rate cuts
The conflict involving Iran, United States, and Israel has intensified as the war enters its third week, with renewed rounds of retaliatory strikes and escalating missile attacks across Iran, Israel, and parts of the Gulf. Iran has launched missile and drone attacks targeting Israel as well as several Gulf states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman. While many of these strikes have been intercepted, some have hit civilian and economic targets. In response, Israel and the United States have carried out additional strikes inside Iran, including attacks on infrastructure and military sites in cities such as Isfahan and Tehran. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities have arrested dozens of suspected informants accused of providing intelligence to Israel, signalling a widening internal security crackdown.
Rising oil prices and global equities under pressure from macro risks: The conflict has also disrupted shipping and energy flows in the Persian Gulf, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade. Reduced tanker traffic has pushed oil prices significantly higher, with Brent crude briefly rising to around US$119.50 per barrel last week – its highest level since 2022, raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressures worldwide. As a result, global markets have turned more volatile, with investors reassessing energy supply risks and broader geopolitical uncertainty. Global equity markets have pulled back from their early-year highs as investors increasingly price in stagflation risks, higher energy costs, and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Major indices across the US, Europe, and Asia have retreated from recent peaks, with markets becoming more cautious on growth and gradually pricing out expectations for near-term rate cuts.
☕️ Quick fire happenings to note
🌏 Global macro
- US inflation in February held steady: US CPI index rose 0.3% m/m, while annual inflation held steady at 2.4% y/y, broadly in line with market expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% m/m and remained at 2.5% y/y annually, suggesting underlying price pressures remain relatively contained. Shelter costs continued to be a key contributor to inflation, while food and energy saw moderate increases. Although the report indicated relatively stable inflation conditions, the data largely reflects the period before the recent surge in oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could push inflation higher in the coming months, complicating the Fed’s policy outlook.
- US consumer sentiment weakened in March, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 55.5 from 56.6 in February, reflecting concerns over rising gasoline prices and geopolitical tensions. The decline suggests households are becoming more cautious on spending as inflation expectations remain elevated and uncertainty around the economic outlook persists. At the same time, US labour market continues to hold up with initial jobless claims near historically low levels. Markets will thus be closely watching the upcoming Fed policy meeting next Wednesday, with investors expecting the central bank to hold rates steady as it balances persistent inflation risks with signs of softer growth.
- China’s inflation data surprise, and diplomatic discussions with the US ahead of Trump-Xi meeting: China’s CPI rose 1.3% y/y in February, the fastest pace in over three years, boosted by strong Lunar New Year spending, though producer price deflation persists. The data underscores mixed inflation dynamics and ongoing concerns about domestic demand. Top US and Chinese economic officials also met in Paris to iron out kinks in their trade truce ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit, focusing on tariff issues, rare earths, and export controls as both sides aim to stabilise bilateral economic ties amid global headwinds.
🏦 Individual stocks/companies
- Adobe Inc (-11.49% past 5D) reported strong fiscal first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share of $6.06, surpassing the estimated $5.87, and reported a revenue of US$6.4 billion, reflecting a healthy 12% y/y growth. Despite the solid fundamentals and a positive Q2 guidance, the announcement was overshadowed by the surprise news that long-time CEO Shantanu Narayen is stepping down after 18 years, creating leadership uncertainty for investors. As a result of the surprise executive transition and broader concerns over competitive pressures in AI which weighed on sentiment, the company’s stock fell sharply, and drove the share price lower during the week.
- Nio Inc (+22.59% past 5D) stocks jumped, supported by very strong fourth-quarter results. The Chinese EV automaker delivered a surprise quarterly profit of RMB 282.7 million on revenue of RMB 34.7 billion, far exceeding expectations after years of losses and driven by record vehicle deliveries and improved margins. The upbeat earnings and optimistic guidance for first-quarter deliveries helped lift the stock despite broader market volatility, marking a meaningful shift in investor confidence around the company’s turnaround trajectory.
- Exxon Mobil Corp (+2.96% past 5D) shares remained well supported in the broader energy rally, as oil prices stay elevated amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. The stock, which has been up 28% year-to-date, has been benefiting from not only the strong industry sentiment but also its strategic moves – such as its planned legal domicile shift from New Jersey to Texas. Management argued that the move would strengthen corporate governance by aligning the company’s legal base with an oil-friendly regulatory environment, thereby reducing litigation risk and boosting investor confidence in its governance and risk management.
🇸🇬 Singapore related
- Singapore’s MTI said it will engage with the US Office of the Trade Representative (USTR) to address discrepancies in trade data, after Singapore was named among 16 countries in a Section 301 investigation into excess industrial capacity. Singapore disputes the USTR’s claim that the country maintains a significant trade surplus with the US, saying it actually recorded a US$27 billion trade deficit, and is pushing back as the probe could lead to further tariffs by this summer.
