Notable market news this past week (19-Apr-26)
Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week
🌍Fragile US-Iran ceasefire under strain amid renewed closure and US threats
After briefly reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has once again closed the vital economic waterway, restricting shipping in response to the ongoing US blockade of its ports, and has reportedly fired on vessels attempting to transit the area. The renewed closure of this key oil chokepoint, which handles roughly a fifth of global supply, has heightened risks to energy markets and undermined the fragile ceasefire momentum, with both sides still far from a comprehensive agreement despite ongoing negotiations. Donald Trump has reiterated threats of further strikes, warning Iran to accept the deal as US further intensifies pressure, reportedly preparing to seize Iran-linked ships globally after accusing Iran of violating the two-week ceasefire.
☕️ Quick fire happenings to note
🌏 Global macro
- Global economy under pressure from energy shock: At the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings 2026, policymakers flagged a worsening global outlook as geopolitical risks intensify, particularly from the Middle East conflict. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 global growth forecast to around 3.1%, warning it could fall toward 2.5% if disruptions persist. Officials stressed that repeated shocks, from COVID-19 to the Ukraine war and now the Iran conflict, are eroding economic resilience, with higher energy prices posing a stagflationary risk through weaker growth and stickier inflation.
- China’s latest GDP data showed a better-than-expected start to the year, with growth coming in at around 5% year-on-year in Q1, broadly in line with China’s full-year target. The outperformance was mainly driven by resilient industrial production and strong export momentum, as external demand held up despite global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. However, the underlying picture remains uneven, with domestic consumption and property-related activity still soft, suggesting the recovery is not yet broad-based. While the headline growth provides near-term support to sentiment, policymakers are expected to remain cautious, focusing more on targeted support rather than large-scale stimulus given lingering deflation risks and external headwinds.
- The Reserve Bank of India kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, opting to stay on hold as it assesses heightened global uncertainty and rising energy-driven inflation risks. The decision reflects a cautious stance, with policymakers prioritising stability amid volatile external conditions while waiting for clearer signs on inflation and growth before adjusting policy.
🏦 Individual stocks/companies
- United Airlines Holdings’ (+7.74% past 5D) shares saw significant volatility over the past week, with the stock initially surging sharply on improving risk sentiment and a broad market rally following easing geopolitical tensions around the Middle East. The move was further supported by a sharp decline in oil prices, which boosted airline margins by easing jet fuel cost pressures. However, gains were somewhat mixed later in the week as investors weighed ongoing uncertainty in fuel price trends and broader market volatility. Overall, the stock remained highly sensitive to oil-driven macro moves, reflecting airlines’ stocks strong correlation with energy prices and travel demand expectations.
- Shell PLC’ (-8.00% past 5D) share price came under pressure, tracking the broader move lower in energy equities as oil prices softened on de-escalation headlines from the Middle East. The stock saw notable downside sessions, including a sharp drop of around 6% in a single day, underperforming the wider FTSE100 as investors rotated out of energy names amid easing crude benchmarks and reduced geopolitical risk premium. The pullback is largely seen as commodity-driven rather than company-specific, reflecting Shell’s high earnings sensitivity to oil price fluctuations. As for now, volatility remained elevated given ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for global supply dynamics.
- Rocket Lab Corp (+26.57% past 5D) shares surged in line with broader strength across space and defence-related equities. Sentiment was supported by positive industry developments, growing contract momentum across the space ecosystem, and the broader geopolitical risk premium, which has boosted demand expectations for satellite and launch capabilities. Speculation around a potential SpaceX IPO also helped lift sentiment within the space sector narrative, with investors viewing Rocket Lab as a listed proxy for private space leaders, and reflecting a continued momentum in the space infrastructure theme.
🇸🇬 Singapore related
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tightened policy by slightly increasing the appreciation slope of the S$NEER, while keeping the width of the policy band unchanged, signalling a more hawkish stance to counter imported inflation from higher oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions. At the same time, advance GDP estimates showed slower growth momentum, with Q1 expansion easing from the prior quarter and even contracting on a quarter-on-quarter basis, reflecting weaker external demand. Policymakers also highlighted that the outlook remains highly uncertain, with inflation risks tilted to the upside due to energy shocks while growth faces downside pressure from global trade and supply-chain disruptions.
