Notable market news this past week (22-June-25)
Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week
🇺🇸 Fed divided on rate path as Powell warns of inflation and Waller eyes cuts
Powell’s warning shakes markets: Markets started the day optimistic despite Middle East tensions, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference tempered sentiment. He warned that tariffs could soon trigger “a meaningful amount of inflation,” causing equities to flatten as investors weighed the risks.
- Powell’s caution highlights the danger of cutting rates too soon. A rate cut amid rising inflation could overstimulate demand, worsening inflation and potentially leading to stagflation, where high prices coexist with stagnant growth, especially amid supply shocks.
- So far, inflation and unemployment data remain steady, possibly due to pre-tariff pricing during the tariff pause supporting sales. The upcoming June CPI report will be crucial to confirming whether inflation will indeed surge, while near-term market moves remain focused on geopolitical risks.
Fed’s Waller signals possible July rate cut, diverging from Powell: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a rate cut could be appropriate as early as July, arguing tariffs are unlikely to stoke significant inflation. His remarks, made after this week’s decision to hold rates steady, contrast with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone and suggest growing internal support for easing to protect the labor market. While not speaking for the full committee, Waller’s comments mark a notable shift amid external pressure from President Trump to lower rates.
☕️ Quick fire happenings to note
🌏 Global macro
- G-7 summit highlights US retreat from global leadership: The recent G-7 summit in Canada ended without a joint communique and with limited progress, underscoring the US’s ongoing shift away from its traditional role in global governance. As Washington prioritizes national interests, the G-7’s influence has waned, raising concerns about a lack of global crisis leadership, diminished provision of global public goods
- Supreme Court boosts Trump’s tariff strategy: The US Supreme Court gave Donald Trump a procedural win in ongoing legal battles over his trade tariffs by declining to fast-track a challenge against them. Two companies argue that Trump exceeded his authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with one federal judge agreeing. However, a separate appeals court has allowed the tariffs to remain in place pending a hearing in late July, reinforcing Trump’s ability to maintain his aggressive trade stance for now.
- Europe-Iran nuclear talks stall, but diplomatic door stays open: Talks between European and Iranian officials in Geneva ended without a deal, as Iran held firm on its right to enrich uranium, stalling efforts to ease tensions with Israel. While no breakthrough was reached, negotiators left the door open for future discussions. President Trump said he would decide within two weeks whether to engage in the diplomatic process. Meanwhile, Israel’s military chief warned citizens to brace for a “prolonged” campaign against Iran, underscoring the region’s escalating volatility.
- Senate advances GENIUS Act, setting stage for first US stablecoin framework: The US Senate has advanced the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan bill aiming to establish the first federal framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins. If passed, it would allow regulated banks and approved companies to issue stablecoins backed 1:1 by cash or Treasuries, with AML and sanctions compliance. While tech giants like Amazon and Walmart eye adoption, critics range from libertarians opposing regulation to progressives warning of systemic risks and data exploitation. A final vote looms, with the bill poised to reshape both crypto and Treasury demand.
🏦 Individual stocks/companies
- Berkshire Hathaway (-4.37% past 1M) slides as Buffett’s exit nears: Berkshire Hathaway shares have dropped ~10% since Warren Buffett announced his retirement plans for year-end, reflecting investor unease over the fading “Buffett premium.” Despite Greg Abel’s expected continuity, markets remain unconvinced he can match Buffett’s legendary stock-picking instincts
- Nippon Steel (-8% past 5D) secures US Steel (+5.97% past 5D) deal with “Gold” share concessions: After an 18-month delay, Nippon Steel has clinched its $14.9B acquisition of US Steel, aided by a rare “gold” share granted to the US government. This class G share gives Washington sweeping oversight, from vetoing job relocations and plant closures to influencing executive pay and sourcing decisions, effectively preserving national control over the iconic firm. While US Steel shares closed near Nippon’s $55 offer, much of the upside appears priced in, with investors now focused on how the unprecedented oversight will shape the company’s future operations.
- Amazon (+4.26% past 1M) signals AI-driven headcount decline amid industry shift: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told employees that AI tools will likely reduce the company’s workforce over time, as automation boosts efficiency and reshapes job needs. While some roles may grow, many may be phased out through slower hiring, not immediate layoffs. The memo sparked concern among staff, especially after recent relocation mandates. Amazon joins firms like Salesforce, Shopify, and Duolingo in using AI to limit hiring or replace roles, part of a broader trend, 41% of employers globally plan cuts due to automation, according to a WEF survey.
- Mastercard shares slide (-6.9% past 5D) on e-commerce giants’ stablecoin plans: Mastercard’s stock fell 5.4% following announcements that Amazon and Walmart are exploring issuing their own stablecoins. This move threatens to bypass Mastercard’s traditional fee-based payment model, posing a significant risk to its core business revenue.
🇸🇬 Singapore related
- Economists cut Singapore's 2025 growth forecast amid tariff risks: Private-sector economists slashed Singapore’s 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.6%, citing US-China trade tensions and tightening financial conditions as key headwinds. The downgrade reflects concern over the impact of Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" on Singapore's export-driven economy. Growth is expected to remain subdued in 2026, while inflation forecasts were lowered and unemployment is projected to rise slightly. Most respondents now anticipate monetary policy easing, including a flatter S$NEER slope, as MAS seeks to buffer the economy against rising external uncertainties.
