Notable market news this past week (15-June-25)
Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week
🏦 Middle East Escalation, US Unrest, and Market Jitters
Rising Tensions in the Middle East: Israel retaliated against Iran on Friday, with Iran firing back on Saturday. Bloomberg analyst Dina Esfandiary outlines three scenarios: limited conflict, targeted retaliation with no U.S. casualties, or full regional war involving the US the latter could push oil prices to $130 if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
Domestic unrest in the US: Before the Middle East escalation, President Trump’s unprecedented National Guard deployment in Los Angeles amid largely peaceful protests sparked concern.
Impact on markets: Geopolitical uncertainty is shaking market confidence. On Polymarket, odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal fell sharply from ~50% to 32%, while the probability of U.S. military action against Iran by July tripled to 32%, reflecting increased risk perceptions. Crude oil jumped 13%, stocks and crypto fell, and gold rose as markets reacted swiftly to escalating tensions, testing the dollar’s haven appeal just a day after Trump downplayed rising prices.
☕️ Quick fire happenings to note
🌏 Global macro
- Political unrest and correlation with the markets: Despite Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to quell protests in LA, markets remained steady, with the S&P 500 up for the week. Bloomberg’s Nick Hallmark finds no historical link between U.S. unrest and economic or market downturns, unlike globally, where the IMF ties unrest to weaker growth and returns. The key difference: strong U.S. institutions help absorb shocks without disrupting economic fundamentals.
- US-China trade talks in London signal potential easing of tensions: US and Chinese negotiators met in London for six hours over dinner, with officials calling the talks “good” and “fruitful.” After months of tariffs and export restrictions, especially on rare earths and tech, both sides showed signs of easing controls. China granted rare earth export licenses to US automakers, while the US may relax some export limits, though advanced AI chips remain restricted. The S&P 500 responded positively, nearing February highs.
- Consumer sentiment brightens despite tariffs: American consumers are showing more optimism in June, with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index rising for the first time since December. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that while shoppers seem to have settled after the shock of April’s high tariffs and policy uncertainty, they remain cautious about the economy and inflation risks.
- Trump admits immigration crackdowns are hurting farms and hospitality, pledging a “common sense” approach. Enforcement raids and visa cuts are causing worker shortages, with companies like Smithfield and DoorDash warning of disruptions. Industry groups push for more temporary worker visas, while businesses report fewer Hispanic customers due to fear of ICE.
- The World Bank forecasts global growth of just 2.5% this decade: The slowest since the 1960s. This year’s growth estimate was cut to 2.3% from 2.8% last year, citing trade tensions as a key risk. While nearly 70% of economies face lowered forecasts, a global recession is not yet expected.
- Colombian presidential candidate survives assassination attempt: Miguel Uribe Turbay, a Colombian presidential candidate, is in critical condition following a shooting in Bogotá, with a 15-year-old suspect arrested. The attack highlights escalating violence in Colombia amid record cocaine production, expanding gang control, and a struggling economy.
🏦 Individual stocks/companies
- BYD (-7.3% past 1M) warns China’s EV price war Is unsustainable: BYD’s Executive VP Stella Li called China’s ongoing EV price war “very extreme” and “not sustainable,” signaling growing concern over margin pressures in the fiercely competitive market. Despite leading much of the discounting, BYD has lost $22bn in market cap since late May as investor worries mount. While the company continues gaining market share, the broader fallout has prompted calls for a reset, with BYD well-positioned to emerge stronger if weaker rivals exit.
- LULU (-10.2% past 5D)tanks as it cuts FY earnings outlook: Lululemon tumbled 19.8% after cutting its full-year earnings outlook, despite beating Q1 expectations with EPS of $2.60 and 7% revenue growth to $2.37bn. Net income declined, and only 1% comparable sales growth, dragged by a 2% drop in the Americas, spooked investors. CEO Calvin McDonald cited cautious US consumers, while CFO Meghan Frank flagged tariffs as a 110bps hit to full-year margins.
- Docusign (-18.21% past 1M) tanks on weak outlook and margin pressure: DocuSign sank 18.9% after Q1 earnings revealed 9% revenue growth to $709.6mn, above estimates, but soft Q2 billings guidance and tightening margins raised red flags. Management cited cautious enterprise spending and rising competition, as post-COVID demand normalization fuels doubts over the company’s ability to reignite growth without major reinvestment or strategic shifts.
- Warner Bros (-5.56% past 5D) splits: Warner Bros. Discovery is dividing into two independent businesses: a Global Networks unit, led by CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels, housing legacy cable brands like CNN, TNT, and TBS; and a Streaming and Studios division, led by CEO David Zaslav, focused on fast-growing streaming. The Networks business will hold a 20% stake in Streaming, using dividends to reduce debt and pursue separate strategic deals.
- Nintendo (-0.76% past 5D) Switch 2 smashes sales records amid gaming industry slump: Nintendo’s Switch 2 sold 3.5mn units in its first four days, becoming the company’s fastest-selling console ever and boosting hopes to reverse a profit slump, while potentially revitalizing an industry facing a recent revenue plateau as gamers’ attention diversifies.
- Analyst starts to be bearish on McDonald's (-4% past 1M): Once seen as a recession-proof staple, McDonald’s stock has been downgraded three times in as many days as analysts question its value proposition amid falling same-store sales and traffic, particularly from lower- and middle-income consumers. The rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs like Ozempic poses a new behavioral threat by potentially reducing customer appetite over time. Additionally, McDonald’s faces intensified competition in a “value war” that has eroded its pricing power, while its premium valuation relative to rivals raises investor concerns.
🇸🇬 Singapore related
- Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visits Singapore: President Prabowo Subianto visits Singapore June 15-16 for his first state visit since taking office, meeting PM Lawrence Wong at the Singapore-Indonesia Leaders’ Retreat. The visit includes formal welcomes and a state banquet. Both countries will strengthen cooperation in trade, defense, and green initiatives. Singapore remains Indonesia’s top investor, with strong economic and security ties. Prabowo is joined by key ministers, highlighting the close bilateral partnership.
